July 2018

Housing price bubble chatter has increased this summer, as market observers attempt to predict the next residential real estate shift. It is too early to predict a change from higher prices and lower inventory, but the common markers that caused the last housing cooldown are present.

Wages are up but not at the same pace as home prices, leading to the kind of affordability concerns that can cause fewer sales at lower prices. At the same time, demand is still outpacing what is available for sale in many markets.

• New Listings in the Twin Cities region increased 4.1 percent to 7,671.
• Pending Sales were up 0.4 percent to 5,894.
• Inventory levels fell 13.5 percent to 11,709 units.
• Prices continued to gain traction.
• The Median Sales Price increased 6.6 percent to $268,000.
• Days on Market was down 17.4 percent to 38 days.
• Sellers were encouraged as Months Supply of Homes for Sale was down 11.1 percent to 2.4 months.

Consumer spending on home goods and renovations are up, and more people are entering the workforce. Employed people spending money is good for the housing market. Meanwhile, GDP growth was 4.1% in the second quarter, the strongest showing since 2014.

Housing starts are down, but that is more reflective of low supply than anything else. With a growing economy, solid lending practices and the potential for improved inventory from new listing and building activity, market balance is more likely than a bubble.

Source: NorthstarMLS,  MINNEAPOLIS AREA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

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We can comfortably consider the first quarter to have been a good start for residential real estate in 2017.

There was certainly plenty to worry over when the year began. Aside from new national leadership in Washington, DC, and the policy shifts that can occur during such transitions, there was also the matter of continuous low housing supply, steadily rising mortgage rates and ever-increasing home prices. Nevertheless, sales have held their own in year-over-year comparisons and should improve during the busiest months of the real estate sales cycle.

New Listings in the Twin Cities region increased 1.3 percent to 8,032. Pending Sales were down 3.0 percent to 5,631. Inventory levels fell 19.9 percent to 10,213 units.

Prices continued to gain traction. The Median Sales Price increased 7.0 percent to $237,500. Days on Market was down 14.1 percent to 73 days. Sellers were encouraged as Months Supply of Homes for Sale was down 23.1 percent to 2.0 months.

The U.S. economy has improved for several quarters in a row, which has helped wage growth and retail consumption increase in year-over-year comparisons. Couple that with an unemployment rate that has been holding steady or dropping both nationally and in many localities, and consumer confidence is on the rise. As the economy improves, home sales tend to go up. It isn’t much more complex than that right now. Rising mortgage rates could slow growth eventually, but rate increases are little more than a byproduct of the strong economy and high demand.

Source: Minneapolis Area Association of Realtors®, Monthly Indicators Report. All data comes from NorthstarMLS. http://maar.stats.10kresearch.com/reports

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