Daily Market Commentary
Updated on June 17, 2019 10:16:03 AM EDT Monday’s bond market has opened the new week in negative ground while stocks are showing gains. The Dow is currently up 12 points while the Nasdaq has gained 55 points. The bond market is currently down 5/32 (2.10%), which should push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 of a discount point if comparing to Friday’s early pricing.
There is no relevant economic data being released today. The rest of the week brings us the release of only three pieces of monthly economic data that may affect mortgage rates and none of them are considered to be highly important. However, we do have an afternoon of Fed events mid-week.
The first will be May's Housing Starts at 8:30 AM ET tomorrow morning. It tracks groundbreakings of new home projects, but is not considered to be as important as other housing reports. This means it likely will not affect mortgage rates unless its results vary greatly from forecasts. Market analysts are expecting to see an increase in starts of new homes last month. Good news for the bond market and mortgage rates would be a good-sized decline because a weakening housing sector makes broader economic growth less likely.
Overall, Wednesday is clearly the most important day of the week due to the FOMC meeting results, revised economic projections from the Fed and a press conference with Chairman Powell. Since there is no highly important economic data scheduled, we could see a couple days with little or no change to rates. Stocks will probably influence bond trading also. Stock weakness is generally good news for bonds and mortgage rates while gains are not. Despite the lack of a heavy schedule, we still should watch the markets as they can get volatile at any time. This is especially true if still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future.
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