Daily Market Commentary
Updated on October 11, 2019 10:15:43 AM EDT Friday’s bond market has opened in negative territory due mostly to trade and Brexit related news. Stocks are reacting favorably to the same news, pushing the Dow higher by 390 points and the Nasdaq up 135 points. The bond market is currently down 23/32 (1.74%), which with weakness late yesterday should push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .250 of a discount point if comparing to Thursday’s early pricing.
Today’s only relevant economic data did not help matters. The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment for October came in at 96.0, up from September’s 93.2 and higher than forecasts. The rise means surveyed consumers felt better about their financial and employment situations this month than last month. Because higher levels of confidence usually translates into stronger consumer spending that fuels economic growth, this was bad news for bonds and mortgage rates. However, the bond market was well in negative ground before this data was posted at 10:00 AM ET.
This morning's bond selling is being attributed mostly to news of a possible deal with Britain and the European Union (Brexit) and comments by President Trump last night that a partial trade deal with China is near. Both of these events, if accurate, are believed to be economically friendly. That makes them bad news for bonds and good news for stocks. Hence the strong open in stocks and the early losses in bonds. President Trump is meeting with China’s trade negotiator this afternoon, so expect more news to come on this later today.
Next week brings us a handful of economic reports, but only one is considered to be of major importance and it comes midweek. The bond market will be closed Monday for the Columbus Day holiday while stocks will be open for trading. Look for details on next week's calendar in Sunday evenings weekly preview.
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