Daily Market Update

Daily Market Commentary Today's Commentary
Updated on October 7, 2024 10:06:13 AM EDT Monday’s bond market has opened in negative territory as the negative reaction to Friday’s employment data carries into the new week. Stocks are also showing early losses with the Dow down 107 points and the Nasdaq down 95 points. The bond market is currently down 17/32 (4.02%), which with Friday’s late afternoon losses should push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .375 - .500 of a discount point.

There is no relevant economic data being released today. The negative tone in bonds is likely to continue until we get to this week’s data. Today’s losses have the benchmark 10-year Treasury Note yield above 4.00% for the first time since late July. This is an important threshold to watch in terms of the direction mortgage rates may be heading. Rates tend to track bond yields, so the upward trend is causing mortgage pricing to move higher also. If the 10-year stays above 4.00%, we have to be prepared for it to continue to rise, bringing mortgage rates with it. Hopefully, the inflation data will be favorable to bonds later this week and help reverse this upward trend.

Tomorrow also lacks any scheduled relevant economic releases. The rest of the week brings us only three monthly reports for the markets to digest, but two of them are highly important and can cause a sizable move in rates (CPI and PPI). In addition to the data, there are also a couple of Treasury auctions and the release of the minutes from last month’s FOMC meeting that may affect rates during afternoon hours midweek. This is also another packed week of Fed-member speaking engagements that may draw attention any day.

Overall, Thursday is clearly the most important day of the week for mortgage rates due to the significance of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Tomorrow could be the calmest day for rates, even though we shouldn’t be surprised to see another minor increase. We should see a noticeable move in rates for the week, particularly the latter days. Accordingly, please keep an eye on the markets if still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future.


 ©Mortgage Commentary 2024 Please E-mail us your opinion of this report